It's Not You, It's the Market

Why would a worker who reports high job satisfaction still think about quitting? The conventional answer is that they wouldn't, reflecting a straightforward model of turnover in which dissatisfaction drives exit. But this misses something important about how workers evaluate their positions in the labor market.

Using nationally representative panel data from Canadian workers, we show that a substantial share of satisfied workers actively contemplate leaving their jobs. The key is that satisfaction with one's current position and openness to external opportunities operate on different evaluative logics. Satisfaction reflects backward-looking assessments of the job as experienced. Turnover intentions reflect forward-looking assessments of what the market might offer.

The disconnect is most pronounced when workers perceive a strong external labor market. Satisfied workers who believe better opportunities exist elsewhere are significantly more likely to contemplate quitting than equally satisfied workers who do not perceive such opportunities. This is not dissatisfaction in disguise. It is a distinct evaluative process in which the market itself becomes a pull factor, independent of job quality.

These findings challenge the assumption that satisfaction insulates against turnover and suggest that labor market perceptions deserve more attention as an independent driver of mobility decisions.